Great post- over the last year all of these ideas have really influenced how I act

> And yet, people will tell you to play within it, because it does provide certain guarantees that they find comforting. If you can play by its rules, and hold up the proper signals, it will do its best to give you a “fair price”.

recently realized it’s more accurate to say the market doesn’t even give you a fair price, since the people circumventing the market are skimming off the best goods, services, partners. It punishes you for using it

> But fairness is not how things ever worked.

this is so so so important

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> But the guy who shared a room with you for one year in university ended up solving the whole thing, just by talking to you 3 years later.

My story is a bit longer, and started with a birthday party I attended of a friend. But directionally, supports your point. I'm the one who solved the problem for my friend's company and continues to do so more than 10 years since said birthday party. I continue to reap financial reward from it.

> So, are you saying markets aren’t even real?

More like, weak ties are more real than markets. But knowing this fact and operating my life as if this fact is true, is a different story. I have operated my life more to the "markets are more real" notion.

Your article is a good reminder that I already knew this, but I haven't yet converted the knowledge into actions that are consistent with said knowledge. Which of course is as good as not knowing it.

> But fairness is not how things ever worked.

Not ever. Having said that, yes is also a sign of human progress that things are more fair now than past. More meritocracy though not absolute. And yes, people should also work towards things being more fair.

Having said that, at the individual level, not taking advantage of your personal (thus unfair) edge, so long as stay within boundaries of law and typical moral norms, is not automatically making the world more fair.

Maybe the best outcome for the world is that everybody makes full use of their personal, unfair advantage, reap the rewards, show genuine self-aware-ness and humbleness when people ask you about it, and then use some of that reward to benefit the world somehow.

I'm directing that last paragraph to myself. No response needed. haha

Now a fan. subscribing to you

> It’s no wonder then, that people are surprised by things like the unreasonable efficacy of cold e-mails.

Again, I have one success story amidst dozens of "nothing happened". I probably have hundreds more of "i shoulda but i didn't" examples.

A lesson popularized by Tim Ferriss book many years ago. probably one i should dust off the shelf and reactivate.

There's probably also a spammy way of doing the cold email. But that doesn't mean cold email automatically equals spammy.

A two in one lesson I need to learn.

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> The reason public markets have no alpha left is not because they’re so wonderfully efficient, but because there’s barely anything happening there in the first place.

The classic saying goes, that if someone has a successful business formula (the alpha in the equation), why would they give it to you that easily (e.g. index fund strategies)?

Some observations from two opposing sides of the TLP-esque grindset:

1. Rao (paywalled XD): Male attractiveness has negligible or even negative alpha, but feminine attractiveness still has a bit of alpha left. End of alpha (charismatic heroism) is it the same thing as Fukuyama's "end of history" and Ortega's "mass man" as NPCs. https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/the-end-of-alpha

2. Yarvin: Every idea market is an aesthetic device. Thymos (ambition) mimic Agape (empathy) and contaminates Logos (reason). https://americanmind.org/salvo/the-clear-pill-part-2-of-5-a-theory-of-pervasive-error/

Combining these two, the terms "public markets have no alpha" and "easy mode in markets are for cowards" can be made through the bridge of thymos/ambition => market of ideas => aesthetics/attractiveness => no alpha/heroism => cowardice. It also leads to the weird side effect that unwise ambition escalates to cowardice.

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this is so well said, i will send this to anyone who applies to jobs through the normal pipeline now and feels bad about doing it through another channel. i really like how you pointed out that it does feel like 'cheating' when it is easier

i never thought about applying to jobs because of market forces not being efficient but it makes so much sense, you put to words what i thought was so hard to articulate about why applying to jobs feels so monotonous and the forces influencing why thank you so much for more 🔥 pieces

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